Primary Sleeve

TQQQ Confirmed Trend Timing

Long-only TQQQ timing model using a confirmed long moving-average trend filter and defensive cash state.

Method

Strategy Principle

2010-03-11 to 2026-05-01

The model treats TQQQ as the primary leveraged Nasdaq sleeve and only takes long exposure when the trend is confirmed.
The live runtime compares price with a 220-day moving average and requires a three-session confirmation before changing state.
When the trend is healthy the target is full TQQQ exposure. When the trend fails the model shifts defensively rather than holding through the full leveraged drawdown.

Target 100% means the portfolio allocation is one notional unit of TQQQ, not borrowed portfolio leverage inside this monitor.
Cash is the unallocated sleeve after the next-session target is applied.
The research baseline is evaluated as a standalone sleeve; portfolio blending is a separate allocation decision.

Research Baseline

Period Return 447.73x

CAGR 46%

MaxDD -68.1%

Calmar 0.68

Sharpe 1

Turnover 27.8

Signal Flips 45

Today

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Audit

Price, signal state, entry/exit markers, exposure, and equity audit.

Execution Log

Run / Check Time	Signal Cutoff	Execute	State	Target	Cash	Changed	Reason

Downloads

Risk Notice